How to eliminate project uncertainties?

The steering committee is meeting for the third time. The choice between the Montreal and Quebec City integrators has been postponed again, pending one final client reference. Meanwhile, the team can neither plan the migration nor book the experts. Eliminating project uncertainty starts with recognizing that waiting costs more than deciding.

The figures cited are from public studies by McKinsey and the PMI; they refer to large-scale projects and serve as benchmarks, not as forecasts for your specific project.

According to McKinsey, in collaboration with the University of Oxford, large IT projects go over budget by an average of 45% and over schedule by 7%, while delivering 56% less value than expected.

Why are project uncertainties inseparable from risks?

Because a risk is, according to the PMBOK definition cited by the PMI, an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, affects project objectives: without uncertainty, there is no risk, only issues. The process of identifying uncertainties therefore goes hand in hand with risk management.

Managing risks and reducing uncertainties requires all the skill of a project manager. They must identify potential risks, implement actions that provide better control during execution, and keep the project objectives in sight. Almost all of these actions boil down to one thing: making decisions.

Uncertainty in project management is inevitable. The project manager’s job is not to make it disappear, but to validate and clarify assumptions one by one, so that the project becomes clearer and simpler for the teams involved.

Where do uncertainties hide in an IT project?

In every facet of the project, but especially in the execution process: the approach, the phasing, the proof of concept, the approval of deliverables, procurement, and the use of external partners. Each of these dimensions is a question that no one has answered yet at the time of launch.

The practical questions: Are we using an agile approach or planned iterations? Should we plan for multiple phases? What type of proof of concept are we conducting, and within what scope? Who approves the deliverables, and based on what criteria? How do we handle procurement? Are we bringing in external partners? These questions form the project manager’s toolkit. They must be answered quickly and precisely.

The cost of waiting is measurable. Benchmarks from the McKinsey and Oxford study, conducted on over 5,400 IT projects:

• 45%: Average budget overrun for large IT projects (initial budget exceeding $15 million USD).
• 7%: Average schedule overrun for these same projects.
• 56%: Less value delivered compared to the projected benefits.
• Half of the large IT projects analyzed significantly exceed their budgets, with software projects being the most vulnerable.

Why does every decision create new uncertainties?

Because choosing a solution eliminates the uncertainty of having to choose, but immediately triggers doubt about whether the choice was the right one: if the doubt persists, further decisions and actions are required. That is normal. Some uncertainties are never fully resolved, as every decision opens the door to unpredictable situations.

Let’s use an analogy. To travel from Montreal to Quebec City, you must first choose your vehicle. Then the route: the South Shore or the North Shore, the old Quebec Bridge or the Pierre-Laporte Bridge. Each choice closes one question and opens another. But without the initial decisions, the trip never happens.

In a car, the ways to manage risks are standardized: seatbelts, insurance, weather checks. In project management, they vary from case to case, and every situation is more complex. When combined with risk management, reducing uncertainty allows the project to move forward with foresight, rather than leaving it in limbo.

Isn’t the greatest risk of all not making a decision?

Yes: not making a decision is neither a safety net nor an option; it is a risk in itself, because it leaves all uncertainties open and delays every subsequent decision. A good project manager therefore accelerates the decision-making process while planning ahead to reduce uncertainties. Without this, they will be forced to manage unforeseen issues without any preparation.

Postponing a decision does not reduce risk; it only changes who owns it: the team ends up carrying it for you.

The steering committee that has been waiting for a final client reference for three meetings is the perfect example. While waiting, the project cost estimate relies on assumptions that no one can validate, and every week of limbo adds to the budget.

This is precisely what a project health check conducted by a third party reveals: the list of pending decisions, how long they have been open, and what they are blocking. In the projects we support, this list explains more delays than all technical issues combined.

How can you concretely reduce project uncertainties?

Maintain an assumption log, assign an owner and a deadline to every open decision, test critical assumptions with a targeted proof of concept, and make decision reviews a fixed agenda item for the steering committee. Four simple steps, rarely done together.

The assumption log is the most neglected tool. Every assumption in the IT project plan—regarding team availability, data quality, or a supplier’s delivery date—is an uncertainty disguised as a certainty. Naming it allows you to validate it or replace it with a decision.

The PMI’s 2025 Pulse of the Profession report, based on over 3,000 project professionals, emphasizes business acumen: understanding the context, knowing how to navigate the organization, and getting things done. In other words, the ability to drive decisions, not just document them.

By moving forward with a chosen solution, the next steps become easier to visualize and define. It then becomes simpler to make subsequent decisions and reduce uncertainties. It is a virtuous cycle, provided you have the courage to take the first step.

Can you really eliminate project uncertainties?

No, but you can replace them one by one with dated, owned, and revisable decisions, which is exactly what is expected of a project manager. A clear project is not a project without unknowns. It is a project where the team knows which ones remain open, who needs to close them, and by when. The rest is called risk management, and it always starts with a decision.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between a project uncertainty and a project risk?

An uncertainty is a question without an answer: which approach, which supplier, which scope. A risk is an uncertain event that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on project objectives, according to the PMBOK definition cited by the PMI. Every unresolved uncertainty fuels one or more risks; every decision closes some of them.

Can you eliminate all project uncertainties?

No. Uncertainty is inherent to any project, and every decision creates new ones. The realistic goal is to reduce it gradually: validate assumptions, resolve open questions on time, and document what remains unknown. A project where the team knows what they don't know is already better managed than a project that pretends to know everything.

Why do large IT projects go so far over budget?

According to McKinsey and the University of Oxford, who analyzed over 5,400 IT projects, large projects go over budget by an average of 45% and deliver 56% less value than expected. The causes often stem from decisions made too late: vague scope, never-validated assumptions, and technological choices postponed until the most expensive moment.

How can you accelerate project decisions without rushing them?

Give every decision an owner, a deadline, and the minimum information required to make a call. A targeted proof of concept lasting a few weeks is worth more than six months of analysis. Also, set a rule for the steering committee: a decision postponed twice is escalated. Speed comes from process clarity, not from rushing.